Subscriber Risk Map
See which retention actions actually reduce churn before you spend time or money. Compare two scenarios side by side and get a clear risk score.
Quick Benchmarks
Pick a starting point that matches your newsletter size. All numbers are editable.
Scenario Comparison
Baseline (Current)
Improved (What If)
| Metric | Baseline | Improved | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12-Month Projected Subs | 1,980 | 2,340 | +360 |
| Monthly Revenue Est. | $1,584 | $1,872 | +$288 |
| Annual Revenue Est. | $19,008 | $22,464 | +$3,456 |
Saved Scenarios
No saved scenarios yet. Adjust the numbers above and click Save Scenario.
Understanding Your Risk Map
How the Numbers Work
The risk score blends churn rate, open rate, and list size. A list of 500 subscribers with a 10% monthly churn is in more danger than a list of 10,000 with the same churn, because the smaller list has less buffer. Open rate acts as a health proxy: engaged readers are less likely to unsubscribe.
The 12-month projection assumes no new subscribers join. It is a stress test, not a growth forecast. If your churn stays at 3.5% per month and you start with 3,000 subscribers, you will have about 1,980 left after a year without new signups.
Common Mistakes
- Ignoring list hygiene. A low open rate often means stale addresses. Cleaning inactive subscribers can raise your open rate and lower spam complaints.
- Comparing unlike lists. A paid newsletter with 2% churn is healthy. A free newsletter with 2% churn may need attention if open rates are also low.
- Overweighting one metric. A high open rate with high churn suggests people read but leave. Look at the full picture.
What to Try First
If your risk score is above 50, start with the smallest change that moves the needle. Raising open rates by 5 percentage points often has more impact than cutting churn by 0.5 points, but it depends on your list size. Use the Improved scenario to test both and see which one changes the projected count more.
After you run a campaign—like a re-engagement sequence or a subject-line test—come back and enter your new numbers. Save the before and after scenarios to track progress over time.